Air Force
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
86  Andrew Johnston JR 31:47
142  Kyle Eller SR 32:00
153  Jacob Bilvado SO 32:02
207  Matt Dorsey SR 32:15
450  Andrew Milliron JR 32:50
487  Nathan Thomas SO 32:54
523  Andrew Tankersley SO 32:57
541  Jimmy Shipley JR 32:59
733  Noah Riley SO 33:21
National Rank #27 of 312
Mountain Region Rank #7 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 26.4%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 9.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 10.5%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Andrew Johnston Kyle Eller Jacob Bilvado Matt Dorsey Andrew Milliron Nathan Thomas Andrew Tankersley Jimmy Shipley Noah Riley
Woody Greeno/Jay Dirksen Invitational 09/17 1060 32:56 33:03 33:13
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 673 31:41 32:21 32:00 32:21 32:32 32:35 32:48 32:55
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/01 1130 33:10
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 661 31:48 32:03 32:04 32:30 32:34 32:45 32:24
Mountain West Championship 10/28 556 31:43 32:17 31:42 31:44 32:47 32:30 33:07 32:31 33:16
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 597 31:34 31:48 31:51 32:29 33:19 33:06 32:36





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 26.4% 22.0 537 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5
Region Championship 100% 6.6 182 0.2 1.7 8.7 27.4 57.1 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrew Johnston 62.3% 78.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5
Kyle Eller 41.5% 103.8 0.1 0.1
Jacob Bilvado 38.5% 111.8 0.1
Matt Dorsey 28.0% 142.4
Andrew Milliron 26.4% 212.4
Nathan Thomas 26.4% 219.3
Andrew Tankersley 26.4% 221.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Andrew Johnston 22.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 3.1 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.5 4.0 4.1 3.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.3
Kyle Eller 30.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.3
Jacob Bilvado 31.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.6 2.4 1.9 3.1 2.7 3.5 3.0
Matt Dorsey 39.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.3
Andrew Milliron 57.6
Nathan Thomas 60.2
Andrew Tankersley 60.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3
4 1.7% 87.9% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 4
5 8.7% 72.3% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 2.4 6.3 5
6 27.4% 61.4% 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.6 3.0 2.7 0.3 10.6 16.8 6
7 57.1% 3.0% 0.1 0.2 1.5 55.4 1.7 7
8 4.3% 4.3 8
9 0.7% 0.7 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 26.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.4 4.3 3.9 3.6 2.1 73.7 0.0 26.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Texas 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Bradley 9.8% 2.0 0.2
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.2% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 2.6
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 7.0